The Liming House

Good to see you again. Glad you enjoy the Limes.

A not unexpected move from Standard & Poor’s, which has been deeply negative on Jamaica for some time now. Rival rating agency Fitch issued a similar downgrade, cutting the island’s local currency rating to ‘C’ from ‘CCC” on Thursday.

It’s not all bad news though – the debt exchange that triggered the rating actions will significantly improve Jamaica’s fiscal footing, and affects virtually all of the country’s J$ denominated outstanding debt.

And as an IMF official quoted by Reuters pointed out, the country is likely to have its ratings *upgraded* once the exchange has been successfully completed – as defined by rating agency criteria.

Here’s a line from Fitch on the prospect of an upgrade:

“In the event that the successful conclusion of the upgrade is followed by approval of an IMF program in support of the government’s fiscal and economic program, Jamaica’s ratings will likely be raised into the single ‘B’ category.”

According to the anonymous IMF official, S&P had also “acknowledged they would raise Jamaica’s credit rating by a number of notchratingses once the debt restructuring was complated,” Reuters said.

The S&P statement:

Jamaica has announced a domestic debt exchange program that officially launches today.

We consider this exchange to constitute a default, so we have revised the foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to ‘SD’ from ‘CCC/C’ and the ratings on the exchanged bonds to ‘D’.

NEW YORK, Jan. 14, 2010–Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today that it revised its foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to ‘SD’ from ‘CCC/C’.

Standard & Poor’s also said that it revised its ratings on the rated bonds that are included the sovereign’ proposed domestic debt exchange to ‘D’.

The ratings on the government securities not included in the debt exchange remain at ‘CCC’. The recovery rating remains at ‘4′.

…

“These rating actions follow Jamaican Prime Minister Golding’s announcement yesterday of the domestic debt exchange and its official launch today,” explained Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Roberto Sifon Arevalo. The offer seeks to exchange all categories of the Jamaican domestic debt except Treasury bills. It does include foreign-currency-denominated domestic debt, which carries foreign-currency ratings, which is why we have revised the foreign-currency credit rating to ‘SD’. External debt is excluded from this transaction

“Overall, the domestic efforts, together with the ongoing multilateral support, should help Jamaica manage its long-standing fiscal and structural problems going forward,” Mr. Sifon Arevalo added. “In this context, we expect to assign a ‘B-’ sovereign credit rating and ‘B-’ debt ratings to the new bonds upon the completion of the debt restructuring and issuance of the new bonds, which is scheduled for Feb. 16, 2010.”

Other Jamaica-related limes are available in the archives.

Dear Trinidadian media: the Haitian earthquake is the biggest and most important Caribbean story, bar none, of the moment and the year to date.

What, exactly, is your excuse for your utter inability to update your sites to reflect this state of affairs, per the following screenshots (taken at approximately 8.55pm Trinidad time):

Screenshot of the Express front page at 8.55pm on Tuesday Jan 12

Screenshot of the Guardian Online's front page at 8.55pm on Tuesday Jan 12

Screenshot of the Newsday's website front page at 8.55pm on Tuesday Jan 12

Poor.

Too often, relatively inconsequential events are referred to as “a tragedy” or “tragic”.

But what is happening in Haiti – dozens dead, many more injured and dying in the aftermath of a 7.3 earthquake that also damaged and possibly destroyed the country’s National Palace – is a tragedy.

Readers, Haiti needs your help. In the coming days, weeks and months the island’s people will need food, water, shelter, medical care as they attempt to rebuild – for the umpteenth time – their shattered lives and nation.

There will undoubtedly be campaigns by the Red Cross, AmeriCares and other such organisations. Please give.

Give, and give generously, because the Haitian populace needs your support more than the myriad fete promoters and purveyors of glorified bikinis do; more than the enforcers of racism and classism along Ariapita Avenue.

Give.

Long-Term Ratings On The Commonwealth of the Bahamas Lowered To ‘BBB+’; Outlook Stable

The Bahamas’ fiscal position has deteriorated, as the government has increased spending while its narrow revenue base has declined amid economic recession.
This has led to a rise in general government debt, and medium-term growth prospects are subdued because of the dependence on U.S. tourism.
As a result, we have lowered the sovereign credit ratings on The Bahamas to ‘BBB+/A-2′ from ‘A-/A-2′.
The stable outlook reflects a gradual tightening of the government’s fiscal stance and generally stable external financing profile.

NEW YORK Dec. 23, 2009–Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term sovereign credit ratings on The Commonwealth of The Bahamas to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A–’. The short-term credit ratings are unchanged at ‘A-2′. At the same time, Standard & Poor’s lowered the transfer and convertibility assessment on The Bahamas to ‘A-’ from ‘A’. The outlook is stable.

“The downgrade reflects The Bahamas’ weakened fiscal profile,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Lisa Schineller. “Its debt and deficits have increased, and the composition of its debt has weakened somewhat. In addition, following three years of economic contraction, The Bahamas’ growth prospects beginning in 2011 are modest.”

The increased pressure on The Bahamas’ fiscal profile stems from the combination of higher levels of debt amid a stagnant growth outlook. The higher debt levels reflect the government’s financing its rising fiscal deficits, a result of countercyclical fiscal spending against a drop in The Bahamas’ already narrow revenue base. Specifically, the government has increased capital and social spending to mitigate the social impact of recession. At the same time, revenues fell by 9.2% in fiscal-year 2008/9 (ending June 2009), and Standard & Poor’s expects them to contract again in 2009/10. Compounding revenue vulnerability is The Bahamas’ reliance on the taxes on international trade and transactions (more than 50% of tax revenue) ); the government aims to minimize their decline by modernizing collection mechanisms, especially at customs.

The country’s dependence on one product (tourism accounts for more than 50% of GDP and employs over 50% of labor force) and one market (U.S. tourists account for more than 80% of total) colors prospects for a robust economic recovery given that Standard & Poor’s forecasts a weak U.S recovery. The Bahamian hotel industry does not expect a meaningful revival of tourism until 2011. In addition, once-buoyant prospects for a major expansion of tourism projects are now far more muted. Although high-end niche projects continue to advance, many others are delayed. In the midst of the slowdown in tourism and construction, unemployment has risen to the highest levels since early 1990s and is projected to close the year at about 14%, a jump from 8.7% in 2008.

The stable outlook reflects Standard & Poor’s expectation of a gradual tightening of the government’s fiscal stance and generally stable external financing profile. The Bahamas’ tourism sector is expected to improve only as the U.S. economy recovers. In the meantime, the government is working to put the offshore financial sector, a second economic pillar, on a stronger footing after it was included on the G-20/OECD grey list of offshore financial centers. The authorities have negotiated 10 Tax Information Exchange Agreements (TIEAs), an important step to getting off the grey list. Although The Bahamas’ external financing gap (defined as current account payments plus short-term debt plus medium- and long-term amortization) is high at 135% of current account receipts and useable reserves, it improved in 2009 amid lower current account deficit and higher international reserves. Importantly, the government’s external amortization needs are low, and the bank’s foreign depositor base remains stable. We expect financing needs to remain, on balance, little changed in 2010-2011.

“The ratings could come under downward pressure if The Bahamas’ fiscal deterioration persists and the economic base erodes more severely,” Ms. Schineller added. “Conversely, the ratings could improve following a more proactive government policy response to reduce debt levels or if the commonwealth’s economic prospects strengthen.”

T&T’s FCB won a country award at The Banker’s 2009 ceremony (link).

First Citizens Bank

Last year, Trinidad and Tobago was significantly affected by the meltdown of the largest conglomerate in the Caribbean, the CL Financial Group. This affected the whole of the local financial system and economy, and had a knock-on effect on First Citizens Bank’s loan book. Further, the government-owned bank had to assist with the restructuring of loan facilities, raising new capital and allocating management time to addressing the various issues arising from the crisis.

First Citizens Bank’s solutions not only helped the local economy, they also provided growth for the bank itself. The acquisition of some troubled institutions were turned to the bank’s advantage and confirmed its counterparty credit rating (BBB+/A2) by Standard & Poor’s, the highest among local banks.

“First Citizens, as a bank owned by the government, was called upon to assist with the management of the crisis,” says chief executive Larry Howai. “The end result has been the maintenance of stability within the local financial system. In addition, the bank was able to acquire a solid base of new customers from the [troubled] CL Financial Group and also acquired [Caribbean Money Market Brokers], one of the premier brokerage houses in the Caribbean. This has resulted in increased profitability, a 70% increase in the bank’s asset base and a presence in several Caribbean islands.”

Last year’s results have encouraged the bank to aim even higher for the future and to look at acquisition targets in the region.

“Our main focus in the coming year will be on risk management, close monitoring and management of our loan and investment portfolios and strategic expansion in key markets,” says Mr Howai. “This latter will include potential acquisition opportunities both locally and in the Caribbean region.”