Yearly Archives: 2009

Media, Trinidad & Tobago

Annals of appalling reporting, Trinidadians and alcohol edition

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A friend forwarded me the following Guardian story, which was published on Friday with the sensational headline:

Trinis drink more alcohol than water—Hospedales

In a word, awful. In two words, bloody awful. Any more words and this post will no longer be fit for children.

But as I am of late attempting to be constructive as well as merely scathing, behold the thinking behind my righteous indignation:

T&T is ranked as the 98th among countries with the highest consumption of alcohol.

This is a non-statement. It tells one nothing. Worse, it doesn’t actually make any sense. What are these countries with the highest consumption of alcohol, pray tell? And how many of them are there? Or did the hapless reporter, Richard Lord, mean to say:

Measured in litres of pure alcohol consumed by its citizens in a given year, Trinidad and Tobago ranks 98th globally, Alicia Hospedales, Minister of State in the Social Development Ministry, said during Wednesday’s debate…

Onward:

She said that information was provided by the World health Organisation (WHO).

Did she, Richard Lord? Did she really mean that someone from the WHO handed her a report on the matter? Perhaps. Rather more likely, Ms Hospedales or one of her staff – unlike say, Richard Lord – did a cursory Google search and happened on this handy Wikipedia-provided, WHO-sourced list of countries ranked by alcohol consumption.

Onward:

Hospedales said the Government’s decision to increase taxes on alcohol and tobacco products was a good one as it is intended to act as a deterrent to users of those products. Responding to claims from Opposition MPs Ramesh Maharaj, Dr Roodal Moonilal and Chandresh Sharma that the initiative was not likely to succeed, Hospedales said she begged to differ. She said the measure would be successful.

SIGH. There is no evidence in this story of either fact checking or even the most cursory editing, so I shall provide some:

Hospedales said the Government’s decision to increases taxes on alcohol and on tobacco based products as part of its 2010 budget proposals was intended to act as a deterrent to users of those products. Higher taxes tend to be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices,  which may lead to reduced demand for the more expensive goods.

Hospedales disagreed with Opposition MPs Ramesh Maharaj, Dr Roodal Moonilal and Chandresh Sharma, who claimed the initiative was not likely to succeed.

And again:

The minister said T&T had been ranked among the countries with the highest number of Alcoholics Anonymous groups per capita in the world.

She said from statistics it seemed that citizens of this country were drinking more alcohol than water.

Gobsmackingly awful, but *thinking constructive thoughts*:

The minister said T&T also ranked (is this true? And if so, where? would have to ACTUALLY DO SOME REPORTING) among those countries with the highest number of Alcoholics Anonymous groups per capita.

On that point, there’s only one study floating around on the interwebs as regards “AA groups per capita” – it dates back to 1991 and posits, among other things:

the highest ratio of A.A. groups in 1991 was in Iceland (784 groups/million people), which has among the lowest levels of alcohol consumption in Europe, while the lowest A.A. group ratio in 1991 was in Portugal (.6 groups/million people), which has among the highest levels of consumption.

Which is interesting, given what Hospedales apparently said next (according to Richard Lord, anyway):

She added that it was a strong indicator that alcohol use and abuse “was a major problem in T&T.”

The study noted above implies exactly the opposite. Ah well.

As for this:

She said from statistics it seemed that citizens of this country were drinking more alcohol than water

I demand to see those statistics, unless she was making a glib generalisation. In which case, WHY THE HELL DIDN’T THE REPORTER MAKE THAT CLEAR? Oh, right. Because it makes a sexy headline. *dies*

And so it ends:

Hospedales said the use of alcohol had caused a myriad of problems for individuals, families and the society as a whole. She quoted statistics which showed that in T&T “66 per cent of highway deaths was due to alcohol use, 63 per cent of fire deaths, 60 per cent of motor cycle deaths, 50 per cent pedestrian accidents, 50 per cent of drownings have all been due to alcohol consumption.”

And I edit, because someone should have:

Hospedales said alcohol had caused myriad problems for individuals, families and the society as a whole. She cited statistics [FROM? BECAUSE THIS IS QUITE CONTENTIOUS] which suggest that in T&T, 66 per cent of highway deaths were due to alcohol use. According to Hospedales, 63 per cent of fire deaths, 60 per cent of motor cycle deaths, 50 per cent of pedestrian accidents and 50 per cent of drownings have all been due to alcohol consumption.

For shame.


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Business & Finance

“Jamaica may already have passed the point of no return”

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Usain Bolt, by Richard Giles, via flickr/tagaroo

Just one month after rating agency Standard & Poor’s released a downbeat assessment of the outlook for Jamaica comes an equally – if not more – negative take from Barclays Capital Research.

The research note issued today by a New York-based BarCap analyst is unequivocal:

we believe that Jamaica is approaching the point of no return and that it will take more than fiscal adjustments to regain sustainability for the long term. For 2009, we expect interest payments to be 16.0pts of GDP, or more than 60% of revenues. Fiscal sustainability in Jamaica has been under pressure for the past ten years, but we believe that at this time, the IMF is more willing to help Jamaica restructure its debt than to prolong its agony.

Elsewhere in the note, which also examined El Salvador, Panama, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic and Guatemala, the analyst is even less sanguine about Jamaica’s financial prospects:

Of particular concern, Jamaica’s fiscal deficit could reach around 20% of GDP (with more than 15% of GDP in interest payments). We think it is extremely unlikely that any reform program will be able to put the country on a sustainable medium- to longer-term fiscal path and believe that the IMF is weighing whether it would be costlier to allow (and maybe help) the country to restructure its debt or to give the Jamaican government the USD1.2bn that is soliciting in order to postpone its agony.

Unfortunately, we believe that Jamaica may have already passed the point of no return and that for the IMF, as well as for the country in the long term, it would be more convenient to assist in a restructuring of debt.

As the three tables below – also from the note – illustrate, Jamaica is in dire straits both in absolute terms and as compared with other countries in Central America and the Caribbean:

BarCap
BarCap

Reduction in current acount deficits (historic and projected)External public debt (historical and projected)


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Business & Finance, Trinidad & Tobago

Some good-ish macroeconomic news for T&T

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My day job has kept me so busy I haven’t yet had time to read beyond the headlines of the latest budget, but it seems that whatever Karen Nunez-Tesheira put together pleased Standard & Poor’s. Although the devil, as ever, is in the details.

The rating agency issued the following statement on Monday (any emphasis mine, as are the bracketed comments):

Republic of Trinidad and Tobago Ratings Taken Off CreditWatch And Affirmed; Outlook Stable

(CreditWatch negative is ratings agency speak for “we’re concerned about this country, and we may lower our rating on it in the not-too-distant future, unless its economics improves)

–Although Trinidad and Tobago’s bailout of the CL Financial Group could cost up to 6% of expected 2009 GDP, its solid fiscal and external position support its policy flexibility.

–In addition, the government’s debt profile and burden limit external vulnerabilities.

–As a result, we have taken the ratings off CreditWatch negative, affirmed them, and assigned a stable outlook.

NEW YORK, Sept. 14, 2009–Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today that it affirmed its ‘A/A-1’ foreign-currency and ‘A+/A-1’ local-currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Standard & Poor’s also said that it removed these ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on Feb. 3, 2009, with negative implications.

The outlook is stable.

In addition, Standard & Poor’s affirmed its ‘AA’ transfer and convertibility risk assessment on the republic.

“We removed these ratings from CreditWatch after evaluating the possible consequences and the cost associated with the government bailout of one of Trinidad’s largest financial conglomerate: the CL Financial Group,” explained Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Roberto Sifon-Arevalo. “Assuming no recovery from any asset sales, we estimate a potential gross loss for the government of about TT$9 billion, which is 6% of expected 2009 GDP.” At the same time, Trinidad and Tobago’s solid fiscal profile, which has resulted from several years of high-energy prices, gives the government the fiscal and external flexibility needed to manage this potential debt burden as well as the current international financial crisis without materially weakening public finances.

The government is responding to these shocks through countercyclical fiscal measures. In this context, Standard & Poor’s expects the general government will have a deficit of 4.5% of GDP in 2009, down from a surplus of 6.3% of GDP in 2008. In 2010, we expect the deficit to be at about 3.5% of GDP as the government continues with its public infrastructure program aimed to mitigate the impact of the world economic crisis in Trinidad.

Standard & Poor’s does not expect the government to contribute nor tap into the Heritage and Stabilization Fund (HSF) to finance the expected deficit in 2009 or in 2010, keeping the fund’s balance at about 11% of 2009 GDP. We believe that the government will finance the deficit with debt, mostly domestic. As a result, we also expect net general government debt to reach 7% of GDP in 2009 and 12% in 2010, which compares favorably with 28% and 31% for the medians of ‘A’ rated peers in the same respective periods.

“Improvements in transparency, governance, and regulation in the financial industry–and among public-sector enterprises, in particular–could further strengthen Trinidad and Tobago’s creditworthiness over the medium term,” Mr. Sifon-Arevalo added. “Conversely, a higher-than-expected fiscal deterioration because of higher-than-forecasted costs associated with the government bailout of CLFG as well as slippages in the pace of restructuring government-owned entities could lead to an unfavorable rating action.”

Are you listening, Mr Manning?


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