The Liming House

Good to see you again. Glad you enjoy the Limes.

A not unexpected move from Standard & Poor’s, which has been deeply negative on Jamaica for some time now. Rival rating agency Fitch issued a similar downgrade, cutting the island’s local currency rating to ‘C’ from ‘CCC” on Thursday.

It’s not all bad news though – the debt exchange that triggered the rating actions will significantly improve Jamaica’s fiscal footing, and affects virtually all of the country’s J$ denominated outstanding debt.

And as an IMF official quoted by Reuters pointed out, the country is likely to have its ratings *upgraded* once the exchange has been successfully completed – as defined by rating agency criteria.

Here’s a line from Fitch on the prospect of an upgrade:

“In the event that the successful conclusion of the upgrade is followed by approval of an IMF program in support of the government’s fiscal and economic program, Jamaica’s ratings will likely be raised into the single ‘B’ category.”

According to the anonymous IMF official, S&P had also “acknowledged they would raise Jamaica’s credit rating by a number of notchratingses once the debt restructuring was complated,” Reuters said.

The S&P statement:

Jamaica has announced a domestic debt exchange program that officially launches today.

We consider this exchange to constitute a default, so we have revised the foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to ‘SD’ from ‘CCC/C’ and the ratings on the exchanged bonds to ‘D’.

NEW YORK, Jan. 14, 2010–Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today that it revised its foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to ‘SD’ from ‘CCC/C’.

Standard & Poor’s also said that it revised its ratings on the rated bonds that are included the sovereign’ proposed domestic debt exchange to ‘D’.

The ratings on the government securities not included in the debt exchange remain at ‘CCC’. The recovery rating remains at ‘4′.

…

“These rating actions follow Jamaican Prime Minister Golding’s announcement yesterday of the domestic debt exchange and its official launch today,” explained Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Roberto Sifon Arevalo. The offer seeks to exchange all categories of the Jamaican domestic debt except Treasury bills. It does include foreign-currency-denominated domestic debt, which carries foreign-currency ratings, which is why we have revised the foreign-currency credit rating to ‘SD’. External debt is excluded from this transaction

“Overall, the domestic efforts, together with the ongoing multilateral support, should help Jamaica manage its long-standing fiscal and structural problems going forward,” Mr. Sifon Arevalo added. “In this context, we expect to assign a ‘B-’ sovereign credit rating and ‘B-’ debt ratings to the new bonds upon the completion of the debt restructuring and issuance of the new bonds, which is scheduled for Feb. 16, 2010.”

Other Jamaica-related limes are available in the archives.

Can’t say you weren’t warned, but this is still a serious blow to Jamaica.

From rating agency Standard & Poor’s on Monday, highlighting mine:

Jamaica Long-Term Ratings Lowered One Notch To ‘CCC’, Outlook Negative

– Jamaica’s Central bank governor, who was the lead negotiator on a possible standby facility from the IMF, has resigned.

– We are lowering the long-term foreign and domestic currency ratings on Jamaica to ‘CCC’ from ‘CCC+’.

– The negative outlook on the ratings signals the growing risk of a debt exchange operation that could be an event of selective default under our distress debt exchange criteria.

NEW YORK, Nov. 2, 2009–Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered its long-term foreign and domestic currency ratings on Jamaica to ‘CCC’ from ‘CCC+’. The outlook on the ratings is negative.

We kept the recovery rating on the senior unsecured debt at ‘4′ and the country transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment at ‘B’.

The downgrade on Jamaica follows the resignation of Central Bank governor Derick Latibeaudiere, who was the lead negotiator within the framework of a possible standby facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

On Aug. 5, 2009, we downgraded Jamaica’s domestic and foreign currency long-term ratings to ‘CCC+’ with a negative outlook. At that time, we highlighted the fact that Jamaica’s severe fiscal situation as well as the vulnerabilities in the government’s debt profile may give it incentives to renegotiate with its creditors, particularly its resident creditors that hold the larger bulk of Jamaican debt.

“Since then, the government’s room to maneuver continues to narrow as it becomes increasingly difficult to further cut public expenditures–as reflected, in part, in the recently amended budget–in order to sustain an interest burden of about 60% of general government revenue,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Roberto Sifon Arevalo.

The negative outlook on the ratings signals the growing risk of a debt exchange operation that could be an event of selective default under our distress debt exchange criteria. While the government’s engagement with the IMF is a positive effort to address the long-standing structural issues in Jamaica, recent events highlight the complexity of the negotiation process and create more uncertainty about the timeframe for reaching an agreement with the Fund.